Normal experts tend to ignore the unknown unkowns and play down the known unknowns, giving the impression that they know pretty well what is going to happen. After the event, they normally claim to have been right, or that they would have been right, were it not for unknown unknowns – Acts of God that they could not have been expected to predict.

So before discussing some of the known unknowns for Sunday’s Velka Pardubicka, I will predict that there may well be some unknown unknowns that will have a major impact on the outcome of our big race. By definition, of course, I cannot be held responsible for unknown unknowns.

However, as an armchair pundit, I can point out some major known unknowns, which I hope the rider of the horse that I tip for the race - Orphée des Blins - will take fully into account.  

Some general known unknowns

·         There are 21 declared runners. Each extra runner exponentially increases the risk of horses interfering with each other.

·         The biggest risk of interference is for horses in the middle or at the back of the field. Most jockeys will therefore have instructions to take up third or fourth place early on.

·         Too many horses trying to be in third or fourth place is a risk factor in itself.

·         Other riders are under instructions to be at the head of the field, where there is a lower risk of interference, or to tuck in at the back. However, their horses may not agree with the instructions.

·         The most dangerous locations are in the proximity of the 31 obstacles, especially because most horses are congenital tailgaters – they follow a leader at dangerously close range.

·         Loose horses are also a danger at Pardubice. They can run across the course or even come running towards the field, or they can run out and take your horse with them. Watch out for them, and try to avoid them.

·         Finding your way round the Pardubice crosscountry course is not easy, and some of the riders in the VP are riding the course for the first or second time. Experienced Czech jockeys know the course very well, and keep away from riders who flew in on Sunday morning – they can run wide or miss a marker, or they can take certain obstacles in a high-risk manner, and take your horse with them.

Some specific known unknowns

·         There is a flag start. With 21 runners, it is necessary to be alert and lucky. Keep near to Josef Vana’s horse. He will not be left at the start.

·         The first two fences should be OK, and also the water jump, No. 3. No. 4 is the Taxis.

·         The Taxis comes before the race is really on, when the horses are still fresh. The main thing is to get over safely. If your horse needs to be led into the Taxis, get in behind a good jockey on a safe jumper. Tiumen comes to mind, but too many others will be following him.

·         (Note for horses) Remember that the Taxis is a long jump, not a high jump. Keep clear of other horses on landing.

·         No. 5 is the Irish Bank. Plenty of horses will take this slowly or reluctantly. Keep clear of them.

·         No. 6 is the Popkovice Turn. Keep well away from inexperienced VP riders, who may try to cut the corner by jumping from left to right. This is a needless risk so early in the race.

·         Nos. 7 and 8, behind the copse, should be OK.

·         Nos. 9 and 10 form a double fence. Inexperienced riders may want their horses to take a long stride between the two elements. This is a mistake. Two short strides is correct. Try to keep clear of the foreign riders here.

·         After No. 10 there is the náměstí (the “town square”). The horses run round the outside of the náměstí. Inexperienced riders can miss one of the markers on the outside of the náměstí, and take your horse out, so try to keep clear of them. (Orphée des Blins’ rider knows this from bitter experience)

·         Between No. 11 and No. 15 there is a little loop. The obstacles should not be much of a problem, but riders who have not studied the course may not take the most efficient route.

·         No. 15 is the Drop, followed by a turn. Caramboles, hesitation, loose horses and getting unseated are undesirable events that can easily happen here.

·         From No. 15 onwards, navigation is likely to be much less problematic. There is much less danger of running out, or of being interfered with, as the field will probably have spread out and thinned down, and the route is more or less simple to understand.

·         No. 16 is the Brick Wall. It is many years since a horse last had a problem with this little obstacle.

·         Nos 17 and 18 are two open ditches, without fences. They are no longer as nasty as they used to be, and a horse may even get away with putting a foot in.

·         No. 19 is a hedge and should not be a problem.

·         Nos. 20 and 21 form a double. Horses and riders that got over the first double normally get over this one, too.

·         Now you go behind the copse again. Nos. 23 to 26 are normally not too problematic, but make sure you know and follow the course at this point. It would be embarrassing to be in the lead and then run out.

·         From No. 26 onwards, the horses run straight across the ploughed field. This is where the race is often won or lost. Josef Vana is likely to be in midfield coming into No. 26 and in contention by the time the horses come on to the grass track, without anyone being able to say how he did it. Study the old films and watch how Vana rides this part of the race.

·         No. 27 is quite a demanding fence at this important point in the race. Don’t underestimate it.

·         Nos. 28, 29 and 30 are artificial plain fences temporarily erected on the flat racecourse. They need to be jumped over – it is not safe to go through the top of them, as in the case of most of the natural hedges. A tired horse may not appreciate this.

·         The last bend is a bit sharp, and if the course has been watered or is heavy, there is some danger of a tired horse slipping up.

·         There is a run-in after the last fence. The winning horse will probably have something in reserve for the last few hundred metres.

·         Quite soon, you may need to explain why your horse did not win. The best explanations blame unknown unknowns, force majeure, Acts of God. Never admit, never need to admit, that your horse fell victim to one of the known unknowns listed above.