The end of October is the end of the Czech horseracing season. In the absence of an all-weather track, winter racing is not practical. In some years, racing would be perfectly possible for the whole month of November, while in other years, for example 2012, there is wintry weather even before the end of October – though in 2012 there was some mild weather in November. The last weekend in October 2012 saw racing in a snowstorm at Pardubice on the Saturday, and the meeting the next day at Prague Velka Chuchle had to be cancelled. Here are some photos of that meeting at Pardubice. http://www.flickr.com/photos/27889831@N05/sets/72157631867832080/show/

In most years it is possible to hold some meetings in November, on the kind of soft ground that we rarely see in spring, summer and autumn. Dresden racecourse, which lies north of Prague and has a similar climate, has a meeting quite late in November – but in Germany there is still some kind of bookmaking industry that needs races to bet on.

Betting on Czech horseracing continues to be very weak. The surplus made by our horseracing betting monopoly Betino has been fairly constant in recent years at about CzK 10 million (about EUR 400 000). However, the amount available for distribution to the Czech racecourses has fallen by about 10% since the beginning of 2012. This is because the Betino surplus is now taxed at 20%, and no longer at 10%. Betino has been further hit by the big drop in the number of trotting meetings. Small turnover, high running costs, unattractive odds, little left over to plough back into racing. It is not a satisfactory situation.

Our weather in October 2013 has been mild and pleasant. The Velka Pardubicka meeting had ideal sunny weather, following sufficient rain to make the going good-to-soft. The last two weeks of the month have been Indian summer, with record high temperatures in places.

There remains a single meeting here in November this year – for some reason it is on the second Saturday in November, at Kolesa. There will be eight races, three on the flat and five over fences, and my prediction is that plenty of grog will be needed. The lack of meetings at Prague Velka Chuchle in November is a disappointment. Velka Chuchle lost 5 meetings this year: one to the frost at the beginning of April, three to the floods in June, and one to the aftermath of the floods at the end of August. The racecourse has also held no trotting meetings this year. That is a lot of inactivity. The racecourse management company worked long and hard in midsummer to deal with the severe flooding, but seems to have had no energy left for organizing race meetings in November.

In October, the Velka Pardubicka is the main topic, even two weeks and more after the race. There is not much to add about the race. Orphee des Blins again won the race in a way that emasculated the geldings. Her intimidating manner has devastated our current generation of crosscountry chasers, the unrelenting view of her hind quarters reducing her opponents on October 13^th to blundering incompetents.

None of the leading Czech horses seems to be heading for Cheltenham this winter. Orphee des Blins’ visit last year was not a success. She hated the journey, and the course did not suit her. She will not run again this year. Next year, she is likely to run only at Pardubice, where she enjoys her racing. She will be 12 years old, and we will see whether she will still be the ultimate competitor. Trezor finished lame after the VP, and the main question is whether he will be fit to run in 2014. 12-y-o Tiumen has finished his season, and a decision will be taken later on whether he will reappear in 2014.

There has again been very little Czech participation in the Crystal Cup crosscountry series this year. The main reasons for this are that any good Czech crosscountry chaser is aimed at the Velka Pardubicka, and the best preparation for that is at Pardubice. The Crystal Cup races are in distant locations, and seem to attract quite strong and large fields. Our trainers are looking for winnable races, or at for least races in which they are pretty sure to get some of the place money. Travelling to western France and finishing 10^th is a less attractive prospect than finding a race with decent prize money and a small field, at somewhere like Wissembourg.

Josef Vana is always in the news. He announced his retirement again on Velka Pardubicka day, and this time it could be for real. He has also been busy endorsing “the Czech Berlusconi” in the parliamentary election, which took place on the last weekend in October. There has also been much in the popular press about whether the amount of money owed to Vana by Merano racecourse will drive him into bankruptcy. The popular press does not bother much about the distinction between money owing to the trainer and jockeys and money owing to Vana’s owners (the main debt is to the Italian owner of Alpha Two and Imprezer, first and third in the Gran Premio at Merano. He did not seem too worried when I spoke to him on VP day) – or about the difference between bankruptcy and insolvency.

Although Vana is not going to go out of business, he and the other Czech trainers and owners are fed up with waiting for their prize money from Italy. It is unlikely that many Czech-owned horses will head for Italy until prize money payments are up to date. This is not a decision that is being taken lightly. Czech trainers have been able to win good money with some moderately good horses in Italy, and have been well received at attractive racecourses there. The ideal outcome would be for Italian racing to become solvent again, and for Czech-trained horses to head back there as soon as possible.

I know that a fair proportion of the small number of non-Czech readers of this site are Czechophiles, and take some interest in what is going on in the country. You will have read that the results of the recent parliamentary elections were inconclusive. Seven parties and movements each won more than 5% of the votes cast, and therefore have seats in the new parliament. There is no obvious potential coalition. CSSD, the left-of-centre party, had appeared two months ago to be likely to be able to head a new left-of-centre government, but won little over 20% of the votes in the election and promptly had a bid inside the party to replace the leader, Bohuslav Sobotka. Sobotka lacks charisma, but is fighting back. He leads the new wing of the CSSD. His opponents are old CSSD, closely connected with the (corrupt) governments in the 1990s, led among others, by Milos Zeman, now president of the Republic and an enemy of Sobotka. A split in CSSD, even before a coalition is formed, is now a probability. Second place, with over 18% of the votes, went to ANO, loudly endorsed by Josef Vana, the party headed by Andrej Babis, the second richest Czech. This party spent a lot of money on advertising, but it is not clear what it stands for. Anticorruption, of course, and more services and less taxation, to be funded by efficiencies which the billionaire will bring in quite effortlessly. Populism! The Communists took third place. The two right wing parties that failed so badly in the coalition that fell, leading to this early election, lost a lot of support. TOP 09 did less badly than ODS. ODS, the main right wing party for the last 20 years, got only about 7% of the votes, and is now in danger of fading away. ODS won only about the same number of votes as USVIT, a second populist party, which wants to decide all kinds of issues by referendums, and therefore did not need to go into, or even come out of, the election with any policies. Finally, KDU-CSL, basically a Catholic party, got back into parliament after seeming to be cast into oblivion after not winning 5% in the previous election.

It is hard to see how a coalition can be put together. The right wing media are suggesting CSSD, ANO and KDU-CSL, more out of a wish to see these parties commit suicide than out of a belief that they could lead the country. The only real possibility of forming a government, in my opinion, would be for ANO to join with TOP 09, ODS and KDU-CSL. These people all hate each other, of course, but politically they are not far apart, as far as we can tell. It would all depend on Babis being the great and hard-headed leader that he claims to be, and running the country with the efficiency and benevolence that he claims to have personified while accumulating a couple of billion euros in the past twenty years.

Contempt for the president of the Republic, Milos Zeman could be a unifying force. After the previous government fell, Zeman ensured that a government of experts was in place, and these experts were mainly from the small political party, the Zemanites, led by Zeman, which broke away from the CSSD. This government lost a vote of confidence, leading to the early election, but was asked by the president to stay on as a caretaker government until a new government is formed. Five of these ministers stood in the election, for the Zemanite party, but the party got less than 2% of the vote. Nevertheless, they can continue to wield quite a lot of power as ministers until the new government is formed. For example, they have been gradually and to some extent getting rid of political appointees put in place by the previous government. The main motivation for most members of the new parliament to form a coalition will be to get rid of Zeman’s government of (Zemanite) experts. Another consideration might be that there is a budget to be passed and a country to be governed, European fund applications to be processed and monies to be administered.

The Czechs reckon that they are used to living with a dysfunctional government, and know how to deal with the situation. This is, after all, the country of the good soldier Schwejk, a country that in the 20^th century survived two world wars fought out on its own territory, and 40 years of socialism. Nevertheless, it is mafiosos that do best in chaos, and we simple honest hardworking folk are the victims.

What would be best for Czech racing? Well, Babis paid (or promised to pay) good money to have Pardubice racecourse’s name changed to that of his company, in time for the Velka Pardubicka and the election, and his company deals with agribusiness, food, bakeries, fertilizers and farm ownership. He certainly knows how to exploit the Czech rural economy. He was at the Velka Pardubicka this year. Will he provide money for Czech racing? Let Josef Vana go and have a word with his friend.

I do not see any reason to be optimistic, but who can tell what is going to happen next!