It should be easy to predict the winner of the Velka Pardubicka. Several of the runners ran in the race last year and in years before that. All of this year’s runners ran in at least one of the four qualification races, held at Pardubice in May, June, August and September. We might just compare the performances and conclude which will finish first, second and third. All things being equal, of course.

Apart from the obvious problem that horses’ form and performances fluctuate considerably, there has been another issue this year. Two of the four qualification races were run on excessively hot days, and another was run on hard ground. The top priorities for trainers and jockeys in the qualification races were to get round safely, and thus qualify for the race on October 9^th, and to avoid giving the horse an excessively hard race and risk injury.

In spite of the precautions, more than one-third of the horses qualified for the race will not be running ar Pardubice today. This is mainly due to locomotion system problems brought on by racing and training on hard ground. Two of the winners of the qualification races, Kasim and Goscater, are not in the field today, and the quality of Sunday’s race is diminished by the absence of these two and some others.

The current favourite for the race is CHARME LOOK. Coming back after a long break, this horse won two races at the end of the 2015 season, including the Vltava Stakes here on Velka day. In those races, he was ridden by Barbora Málková. and it was the intention of the lady owner and also the lady trainer, Martina Růžičková, to win this year’s race with Barbora on board. Unfortunately, she had what turned out to be a quite bad fall just before the August qualification race, and Charme Look won that race convincingly with Lukáš Sloup picking up the ride. The horse will be ridden on October 9th by Jan Faltejsek, and Barbora Málková will be leading Charme Look round in the parade ring (and in the prizegiving ceremony). Having a top jockey on his back will do no harm to Charme Look’s chances.

The current second favourite is RABBIT WELL, trained by Josef Váňa senior and ridden by Josef Váňa junior. This horse’s whole career has been impacted by his bad temper and by his attempts to avoid starting. When he does start, he sometimes kicks at a fence ot two, rather than jumping them. Nevertheless, he has won 15 races, including last year’s August qualification race. He finished 4th in the 2015 VP, although he was still new to crosscountry chasing at Pardubice. This year, he has finished 2nd in the May qualification race and 3rd to Charme Look and Ange Guardian in the August qualification race, in spite of running moodily on both occasions. Rabbit Well is the most talented horse in the field. If he can get away from the start without losing too much ground and wasting too much nervous energy, his supporters will start rubbing their hands. Josef Váňa junior has not had much success in his previous 8 rides in the Velka, but is a very good and experienced young jockey.

Third in the current betting is ZARIF, trained by Josef Váňa senior and ridden by Josef Bartoš. Zarif has been established for several seasons as one of our top crosscountry chasers. Last year, he won the June qualification race and was promoted to 2^nd place in the VP after the disqualification of Nikas. This year, he finished 8th, qualifying safely, in the May qualification race, and he had a good warm-up race when he finished 6th, not too far behind, in the August qualification race. Josef Váňa has been preparing Zarif specifically for this race race, and Josef Bartoš is our top jockey over fences.

NIKAS is currently fourth in the betting. He was first past the post in the 2015 Velka Pardubicka, on merit and in record time, but was subsequently disqualified because caffeine and theobromine were found in his body fluids. He will be ridden again by Marek Stromský. His performances have tended to be inconsistent, and he does not alwaysget round, but four of his 7 wins have been in Category I or above races, and all but his first win were at Pardubice. He won the 3-y-o hurdles race on VP day 2008, the Labe Stakes here on VP day 2011, and the May VP qualification race in 2014. Veteran jockey Marek Stromský is the unluckiest jockey in the history of the VP. He was first past the post on Amant Gris in VP 2008, but was correctly disqualified for missing a marker. In 2010, the same pairing was beaten by a nose by Tiumen. There was an objection against Tiumen, which was upheld, and the jockey was fined for crossing, but the result was not changed, because the interference was adjudged not to have affected the result. [In my opinion, Tiumen’s jockey Josef Váňa’s riding was just inside acceptable limits, and it was correct not to change the result, but mine was a minority opinion]. Last year’s disqualification was a cruel disappointment for Marek Stromský and for all the horse’s connections. Caffeine and theobromine are typical foodstuff contaminants, and there is no doubt that foodstuff was the source of the offending substances. A win for Nikas would be the most popular result for Sunday’s race. The horse is certainly good enough, on his day.

Fifth in the betting is HEGNUS, trained by Čestmír Olehla, who has won the race four times with Železnik and twice with Registana. Hegnus impressed a lot at the end of the 2015 season, when he won the September VP qualification race, and then won the Labe Stakes on VP day. On VP day 2011, he won the race for 3-y-o hurdlers. This year, his only runs have been in three VP qualification races. In the May race, he finished 3rd to Kasim, after being sandwiched by the first and second inside the last 200 metres. Then he unseated his rider in the June race. In August, he finished a respectable 5th, not too far behind Charme Look in the August qualification race. He will be ridden by a very experienced jockey, Jiři Kousek. Hegnus may not have quite as much quality as the four horses already mentioned, but if 6900 metres is his distance and if autumn is his season, he can win the race.

Sixth in the betting is ANGE GUARDIAN, trained by Josef Váňa senior and ridden by Jan Kratochvíl. The route taken this horse in his career so far suggests that his trainer has not considered him a suitable type for the Velka Pardubicka. None of his 8 wins have been at Pardubice. He has won 4 times on grass at Most, and in May and June this year he won both of the two Category I races run this year at Lysá-nad-Labem, also on grass. The August VP qualification race this year was his first long-distance outing including ploughed fields. His finished 2nd with a late run, which was an even more commendable run because he lost quite a lot of ground at the start. Jan Kratochvíl is fresh from his win on Mazhilis in the Gran Premio di Merano. He has followed a thorough and tough apprenticeship at the Josef Váňa stable in the last 4 years, and won the Czech jumps jockeys‘ championship last year. Lack of experience and the long distance of the race will probably undo Ange Guardian, but he is an interesting 8-y-o and could do well in future years.

These are the six fancied runners, and the others really have nothing in their recent form to suggest that they have much of a chance against the main contenders. I will deal with them in the order that they are currently in the betting.

Pareto won the 3-y-o hurdles race here on VP day 2010, and has won quite nice prizemoney from placings at Wroclaw, in Poland. This year, he was 4th in the Crystal Cup race and 3rd in the Wielka Wroclawska. This is not bad form, but he would need to improve on it quite a lot, and show aptitude for the Pardubicka course, if he is to finish in the first half of the field today. His jockey is multiple Czech champion over fences Jaroslav Myška, a considerable asset

Templář, Puntarenas and Ter Mill are all three currently locked together in the betting, as they were at the end of the June qualification race. Templář and Ter Millare half-bred half-brothers, and stablemates. Ter Mill won a couple of Category II races at Pardubice, at the end of the 2015 season and also at the beginning of June 2016. Templář’s narrow win in the substandard June 2016 VP qualification race is by some way his best performance so far. Puntarenas won the 3-y-o hurdle race on VP day 2009, and his 6 career wins include a decent win in a Category III race at Pardubice at the beginning of June this year. Templář will be ridden by experienced jockey Marcel Novák, Ter Mill will be ridden by Jan Odložil, having his first ride in the race, and Josef Sovka, another experienced jockey, will be on Puntarenas. I cannot get very excited about the chances of any of these finishing near the front of the field.

If I were forced to back an outsider, it would be Universe of Gracie. He finished 4th in the VP in 2014, and 3rd, after the disqualification, in 2015. In both of those years, the field for the VP was stronger than it is this year. The trouble with Universe of Gracie is that his two runs this year have been pretty awful. He finished a well-beaten 11th in the June qualification race, and was a long way behind in 5th place in September qualification race. As suggested above, the horses were not necessarily flat out in this year’s qualification races, and Universe of Gracie may have something in hand. His jockey Vlastislav Korytář is a Czech who has been working and riding for years in Germany, but he has little experience of riding at Pardubice.

Reaper is most famous for his dam, double VP winner Registana. He has won 6 races, but since he started taking on the best crosscountry chasers two years ago he has not asserted himself. He did not achieve much in three qualification races this year, and at 7-y-o he may be one for the future, but is not yet ready to achieve much at the top level. His rider Jakub Spačil is a good apprentice, having his first ride in the race.

The other three have no form worth raising here. Good luck to their sporting owners and trainers, and to their jockeys. Amaragon will be a first ride in the race for good apprentice Pavel Složil junior. Peintre Abstrait was 5th of six finishers, well beaten, in VP 2013, so he has already had his day. This is a poor ride for a good jockey, Lukáš Matuský. Martin Liška has spent a long career riding mainly horses that no-one else wants, and he will be doing so again on Sunday, on Rendez Vous.

My tips are really not worth anything, but let me try:

RABBIT WELL - Zarif- Nikas - Hegnus - Universe of Gracie

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