The Pardubice weather forecast for the next week is dry and with clear skies. I understand that the course is being watered to prevent the race being run on firm or hard ground. However, the course for the VP is well over 4 miles long, and no part of it is repeated. Watering such a large area is no easy task, though at least it is no longer a task being taken on - metaphorically speaking - by two men fighting over a single watering can. This summer was extremely hot and dry, but acceptable ground was provided for each of the four qualification races, and it will be again on Sunday. In recent years, the Pardubice ground staff, under the leadership of Jiří Janda, has earned a lot of praise from trainers and jockeys.

Four good Váňa-trained horses

Last Friday, when the declarations to run and the declaration of riders for the Velka closed and were then announced, there was quite a lot of interest in, and drama over, the riders for the Velka. We had known that there are fewer than 10 Czech-based jockeys that owners and trainers would be fighting over, and that there would be a scramble to find a decent rider for any horse other than the lucky few. The big question was, Would Jan Kratochvíl be fit to ride hot favourite No Time To Lose. He had injured his right hand, arm and shoulder at Pardubice on September 8th, but it was assumed that anyone connected with the Josef Váňa stable would recover from any injuries, no matter how severe, within a 5-week period. However, Jan Kratochvíl’s specialist advised him, right before declarations day, that he would not be able to manoeuvre an animal weighing half a ton on October 14^th. It was perhaps anticipated in the Váňa household that Kratochvíl would ignore the doctor’s orders, in the Váňa tradition, but he didn‘t.

The Váňa stable has four runners in this year’s Velka, two of them, No Time To Lose and Ange Guardian, likely to be the favourite and the second favourite. Theophilos and Zarif are also well fancied. In the four VP qualification races, there are a total 16 finishers in the first 4 places. Eight of those 16 places were taken by these four -trained horses. In the May race, the Váňa horses took only 2nd, 3rd and 4th place - but the non-Váňa winner of that race, Talent, is injured and is a non-runner on Sunday. The other three qualification races were won by Ange Guardian, No Time To Lose, and Ange Guardian, again. In the August race, there was an unexpected magnificent battle between stablemates No Time To Lose and Theophilos, a battle which the trainer considered an aberration. It was such a no-holds-barred battle that third-placed Eldorado finished a distance behind them, and his connections decided there was no point in taking the Váňa horses on again on October 14. Behind Eldorado, however, Kasim, and then Artistmontot, and finally, Mileryt trailed in utterly routed.

The point is that Váňa needed four good jockeys. He had planned to have Kratochvíl on No Time To Lose, Jiří Kousek on Ange Guardian, Josef Váňa junior on Theophilos, and, hopefully Josef Bartoš on Zarif. It was known that Bartoš has some kind of retainership agreement with owners Lokotrans, and would probably ride Vicody, on which he had finished 3rd in a very close finish, just an length and a nose behind Ange Guardian and Tzigane du Berlais, in the September qualification race. The Váňas seem to have decided to wait and hope that Bartoš would be available and leave any Plan B until the last moment. When Jan Kratochvíl convinced himself that he really would not be able to ride, and Lokotrans claimed Bartoš for Vicody, Plans B, C and D had to be hatched, quickly. It should be pointed out here that Josef Váňa has plenty of experience of having several runners in a big race in Italy, and suddenly needing a jockey or two after a last-minute injury. Váňa’s inner circle decided that Josef junior should ride No Time To Lose, Jiří Kousek should remain on Ange Guardian, and that a phone call should be made to Raffaele Romano, who won the Italian jumps jockeys’ championship several times as first jockey for trainer Paolo Favero. Then  Raffaele Romano started out as a trainer, and I think trainers in Italy are allowed to ride only horses that they train themselves. Josef Bartoš took over as Paolo Favero’s first jockey, and as champion jockey. In the last three years, however, Josef Váňa senior  has taken over as the top jumps trainer in Italy, and Josef Váňa junior has won the jumps jockeys’ championship. Raffaele Romano has ridden in the Velka Pardubicka a couple of times before, and he is said to have accepted the ride on Zarif without having his arm twisted.

That left the Theophilos problem. Josef Váňa has a good boy, Patrick Boekhout, who, I deduce, finished the School for Apprentices in 2016, and has been working, or continuing to work, for Váňa since then. This year he has had 6 winning rides in 62 starts in the Czech Republic, plus one in Poland, quite often on Váňa’s second choice, and he has been shaping up in recent months. Theophilos is a terrific ride for him, and the horse has a real chance in the race. I think Patrick Boekhout has a Dutch father, and he is certainly based in the Czech Republic. I must find out more about him, in case he wins the Velka Pardubicka! [sadly, this is not going to happen, as Theophilos has been announced as a non-runner]

For me, the Váňa horses are the best four in the race. No Time To Lose has not put a foot wrong in more than the last year, and is the clear favourite. In three VP qualification races this year, Ange Guardian has finished 2nd, once, and 1st, twice. He finished 2nd in VP 2016 and 5th in VP 2017, so his credentials are truly impressive. Zarif has finished 6th, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th in the last four VPs – trending in the wrong direction, you may say. However, he is only 11 years old, and he won a Category II race in Pardubice in quite good style last time out. He stays and he jumps, and he is certainly a contender. Theophilos won the First of May Steeplechase at Lysá this year, for the second year in succession, and then finished close up in 4th place in the May qualification race. No Time To Lose had to pull out all the stops to beat him in the August qualification race. As I just said, Theophilos is a terrific ride for young Patrick Boekhout, though there is some doubt about whether the horse will stay sufficiently.

The other main contenders

Tzigane du Berlais’ chances are being touted by those in the know. He finished 2nd behind Vicody in the Labe Stakes on VP day 2017. This year, he ran in the May qualification race, but he did not act on the firm ground, and was pulled up. Then he was declared to run in both the June qualification race and the August qualification race, but on both occasions he was pulled out on the day of the race because of the firm going. In August, it is said, the owner was none to pleased that the horse did not run. The September qualification race was, in effect, Tzigane du Berlais’  last chance to qualify for VP 2018, and to be honest, the ground was still quite a bit harder than the trainer would have preferred. However, the horse now needed the race. After being held up, he made a late challenge, and finished just a length behind Ange Guardian. With 4-time winner of the VP Jan Faltejsek in the saddle, Tzigane du Berlais is a serious contender.

Vicody and Tzigane du Berlais’ fates have been intertwined over the last 12 months. Vicody beat Tzigane convincingly by 9 lengths in the Labe Stakes on VP day 2017. He began this season with a reasonably good 4^th place against some good opposition in the Opening Crosscountry Stakes at Pardubice on May 8^th. In that race, he finished a distance ahead of Universe of Gracie, Ter Mill and Ribelino, all of which face another drubbing in VP 2018. He then finished well behind the leaders in the May qualification race. He was put away until the ground softened, but he needed a warm-up race in September. He finished in a good third place in the qualification race, finishing just a length and a nose behind Ange Guardian and Tzigane du Berlais. With Josef Bartoš in the saddle, Vicody is a serious contender.

Hegnus is the last of the serious contenders. He has had a pretty useful career, though he is not very sound. He was supplemented for the VP on the strength of two good performances this year. He finished 2^nd behind Ange Guardian in the May qualification race, and then he won a Category II race at Pardubice on September 9^th. He is ridden by Marek Stromský, who has good claims to be the unluckiest jockey in the history of the Velka (twice disqualified from first place, and once beaten by a nose, when some thought his protest against the winner was justified).

The Wroclaw specialists

Now we move on to three horses with pretty good form away from Pardubice. Wroclaw racecourse, in Poland, is a popular destination for several Czech trainers. It is not very far away, and is a nice park course. Although the horses do not run between rails round the perimeter of the course, it is a faster and less challenging track than Pardubice – despite the introduction of a quite deep water splash and a couple of other obstacles to meet the requirements for the Crystal Cup series. Sztorm has won the two biggest steeplechases at Wroclaw this year, the Crystal Cup and the Wielka Wroclawska, and Pareto followed him home in 2^nd place on both occasions. Completing a Crystal Cup series race qualifies horses for the VP, and neither of these horses has run at Pardubice this year. Sztorm has run at Pardubice only once since 2013, and has a poor record at the course. Pareto has run in the VP four times, but his best placing has been 8^th. Apart from his moderate performances over the Pardubice crosscountry course, Pareto has a good long-term record, going back to when he won the 3-y-o hurdles race on VP day in 2010. Sztorm and Pareto are two decent horses that are probably in the wrong race today. These two horses will be ridden by the two jockeys currently leading the Czech jumps jockeys’ championship. Marcel Novák, who rides Sztorm, won the Czech jumps jockeys championship for the first time last year, at the age of about 42. Bulgarian rider Sertash Ferhanov arrived here, with his brother Beysim, who rides on the flat, 4 season ago. Sertash is a very highly-rated addition to our sparse array of jumps jockeys. He finished 2nd in our jumps jockeys’ championship in 2016, and is now neck-and-neck in this year’s championship with Marcel Novák. Both of them have ridden 15 winners so far this year in the Czech Republic, and Marcel, in particular, has won several races abroad, too. Beysim Ferhanov, Sertash's brither, has also had a very successful season, on the flat.

Delight My Fire, the only mare in this race, is the hardest of all the runners to weigh up. She used to be regarded as a Wroclaw specialist, after she finished 1^st in the Wielka Wroclawska in 2015 and 2017, and 2^nd in the race in 2016. However, she also finished 2^nd in the mares’ race on VP day in 2015, and won the Labe Stakes on VP day in 2016, and finished 3^rd in VP 2017, which also qualifies her as a Pardubice course specialist. In December 2016, she went to Cheltenham, and still seemed to be in contention when she fell at the 6th from home. This year, she has run 5 times – first in France, then in Italy, then twice at Wroclaw, and finally in the September qualification race at Pardubice. She has not finished higher than in 4^th place. However, those 4^th places were not bad performances. She finished 4^th in the Grande Steeple Chase di Milano, Graded 1, behind some very good horses, and she finished 4^th in the September VP qualification race, some way behind the first three, but not ridden out. Veteran Swedish jockey Niklas Lovén has travelled countless kilometres to ride Deli in 13 of her last 17 races, including her ‘delightful’ run in VP 2017.

The old guard

There are three 13-y-os in the race. Each of them was a hero in his day, but that day passed about three years ago, and is highly unlikely to return on October 14^th. I wrote a fond farewell to Nikas, Kasim and Universe of Gracie a year ago, and I am still shocked that they are down to run in the Velka in spite of all being clearly well past their prime. None of them has produced anything in 2018  http://www.dostihovy-svet.cz/en/node/7688

One of the nice things about steeplechases is that they are graced by tough horses that come back year after year and become a part of the history of the race. In the 2017 VP, there were three 12-year-old warriors that belong in this category. Nikas will be remembered for 2015, when he was first past the post, in record time, but was subsequently disqualified when he failed a drugs test. He has run in the Velka in each of the last six years, once finishing second a long way behind Orphée des Blins. Each year, he would win or do well in at least one of the qualification races. As a three-year-old, nine years ago, he won the juvenile hurdles race on VP day. I think it is official that he has been retired. His last two runs in the VP were disapppointing. Last year, Marek Stromský was unseated for no apparent reason some way after they jumped the Taxis. This year, he was one of the first to be pulled up when he dropped off the pace before the Drop. The two other old warriors, Universe of Gracie and Kasim, were not quite as distinguished as Nikas, but both have featured frequently in the prizemoney for the Velka and for the qualification races over a period of several years. I may be premature in presuming that these two battlers have ended their racing careers, but in any case they fully deserve a mention here. Universe of Gracie was pulled up, and Kasim was the last of the eight finishers.   

Lukáš Sloup rides Universe of Gracie and Martin Liška rides Kasim. These two jockeys both have a lot of experience of riding no-hopers, and will pull their horses up rather than let them trail in far behind the leading group, which they would have been in a few years ago. I hope British jockey Andrew Glassonbury, too, will have in mind that Nikas is a legend, and protect our memory of this horse.

Past their best?

11-y-o Ribelino was awarded first place Velka in 2015, after Nikas was disqualified. His performances in the past three years should have shown the connections that this distinguished chaser is not OK. I hope his British jockey, James Best, riding here for the first time, will have this in mind.

Vandual won the Slovak St Leger in 2011, and had some reasonable results over fences a few years ago. He did not run last year, and has not shown much form this year. Slovak jockey Lukáš Matuský rides.

Slovak-trained Vajgaros surprisingly won the race for 5-y-os on VP day in 2016, but has only run three times since then, without achieving anything. Will be ridden by Irish jockey Leighton Aspell, who has twice ridden the winner of the Aintree Grand National and is a leading jumps jockey in the UK.

Stretton was promising as a young chaser, but has not progressed. He will be ridden by another Brit, Thomas Garner, who has ridden here a few times in recent years, including a ride on Sokol, which fell in VP 2015.. It should be added that Stretton has some supporters (but not me).

The plodders

Templář won the substandard June qualification race in 2016, very narrowly, but has never been more than an honest trier. He will be ridden by Thomas Boyer, a French jockey who has been working in the Czech Republic for several years.

Ter Mill is a distinctive figure, a grey horse that likes to make the pace. Has finished 6th and 7th in the VP. He is one-paced, and faster horses will gallop past him well before the end of the race. His rider Jan Odložil had been around for a long time before he broke through in 2016. He is now in third position in the Czech jumps jockeys’ championship.

Bridgeur also likes to set the pace, and he sometimes gets quite near to the end of the race before the others come rushing past him. Will be ridden by top jockey Jaroslav Myška, whose wife is the trainer.

The intruders

Finally, two horses that totally out of their depth in a race like the VP. I hope they will get round safely.

Artistmontot has never achieved a result that suggests he should run in the VP. Ridden by Ondřej Velek, a young Czech jockey who also rides on the flat.

11-y-o Mileryt finished second-from-last in the Czech Derby in 2010, and knows well what it is like to be outclassed. I don’t suppose he will do better in the VP than he did in the Derby. His part-owner is Jan Mach. He is a qualified vet, and he also trains Mileryt. And rides him - he is a professional rider who has ridden 23 winners over fences. There is a grand tradition, going back into the 19th century, of various categories of desperados riding in the Velka Pardubicka. By the way, when the numbers that the horses will carry in the race were drawn, and Mileryt drew number one, everyone laughed. At least the horse and his owner/trainer/rider/vet will get to lead the parade.

****

No Time to Lose – Ange Guardian – Zarif – Theophilos – Delight My Fire

Photo: Josef Váňa snr, in his lucky hat. Photo by Petr Guth.