Sorry, no time to write my comments in detail for the 2014 Velka. However, there is no need, for two reasons. Firstly, I translated some excellent detailed information for the Pardubice raceday programme, expertly written by Milan Tuma, with which I agree 99%. Secondly, Chris Simpson has also made an excellent analysis of the Velka, with which I agree 98%. I thought of just downloading it from his website and pasting it here, but Chris is a lawyer. I prudently decided to give you the reference to his detailed information about the runners and riders, and also his excellent Velka Heroes section. In addition, I will put my views on the race, and my tips for the two-day meeting.

http://www.freewebs.com/becher123/124thvelkapardubicka2014.htm

http://www.freewebs.com/becher123/velkaheroes.htm

The Velka.

All logic points to ORPHEE DES BLINS destroying the opposition again and winning very easily again. She has been brilliant in all her races at Pardubice for the last two years. She has repeatedly devastated most of her opposition on Sunday.

We all agree that there are question marks hanging over Trezor – Does he stay? Is he a midsummer horse? Has Orphee destroyed his poise and confidence? The answer may be no, yes, yes. Nevertheless, he has a terrific record in qualification races over the past three seasons, and he is my second choice. If the answer to those questions above turns out to be yes, no, no, and Orphee does not have her day, I think he is the next best.

There are five others that have every chance of being placed. The three horses that finished 2^nd, 3^rd, and 4^th last year were beaten by a distance by Orphee, admittedly, but they have all done quite well this year. Second-placed Nikas won the May qualification race, not in great style, but he won it, and he now has quite an impressive record of major performances over the years. Third-placed Klaus won a Category II race at Pardubice this year, and ran OK in his qualification race. Fourth-placed Kasim ran well in the May qualification race, and then won the August qualification race.

The other two qualification races not mentioned above were won by Trezor and by Orphee des Blins. In each case, Zarif finished in a very respectable 2^nd place. I think it would be a slight exaggeration to say he ran them close, by he certainly made themconcentrate in the finishing straight, and this is a good young contender.

Nobody should describe 13-y-o Tiumen or his 61-year-old jockey as young. Nevertheless, the horse has won the race 3 times, and the rider 8 times as a jockey and 9 times as a trainer. Tiumen stays for ever, and is capable of making up a lot of ground in the last in the last kilometer, when the non-stayers start making more up and down movement than forward movement.

The seven above all have a clear chance of getting a place. What could spring a surprise? The third Vana-trained horse, Soros, is being ridden by Josef junior, who is the stable’s number 1 jockey. If this were a race over hurdles, or over a galloping grass track, and not more than about 3 miles, Soros would be a major challenger. He took a decent 3^rd place in a qualification race this year.

Gauner Danon suggested he may not be moderate, after all, by finishing in a good 2^nd place in the August qualification race. Peintre Abstrait got round in 5^th place last year, and might emulate that again this year. Pareto and Zulejka are not without some class. Moula, Al Jaz and Universe of Gracie are good types. Cardom used to be a decent two-mile crosscountry chaser. The others really do not seem to have much chance at all.

What about UK-trained Lambro? His recent preparation seems to have involved a long journey to Perth, for a race which he failed to finish, and then another, shorter dash to Warwick to finish 4^th and thereby qualify for the Velka. He achieved the modest VP qualification requirements less than 24 hours to spare. If the horse had been with Charlie Mann for longer, and had some racecourse experience of crosscountry racing, and if the rider (and the horse) had been fully prepared for the race, we might have to take this one seriously, as he has a fairly good record in Ireland, where he used to be trained by Willie Mullins.

 **

 Saturday, first race at 12 midday

 1. Sorgenio

 2. ZANZIBAR

 3. Step Star

 4. Ley Percy

 5.Fantaggiro Lady

 6. Waka Laura

 7. Autor

 Sunday, first race at 11.30 a.m.

 1. Spring

 2. Sokol

 3. Moderator

 4. Natalie

 5. Shaman

 6. Modena

 7. GEJZIR

 8. Orphee des Blins  

 **